NeuralMET

DISCLAIMER: This is an EXPERIMENTAL site exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence for aviation weather prediction. The forecasts presented cannot be assumed to be accurate and are used entirely AT YOUR OWN RISK
  

EGAC -- Belfast City United Kingdom (54.6181, -5.8725)

METAR (actual weather observation from US NOAA/NWS, updated every half-hour or so)

Date & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees TrueFlight Category
7/20/2018 9:20:00 PM15.013.013008.0OVC10146.217.0320MVFR

NeuralMET Forecasts (via FlyLogical Deep Learning Neural Networks, refreshed every half-hour or so)

Hours aheadDate & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True Flight Category
0.57/20/2018 9:50:00 PM14.712.655027.6OVC10155.726.3145VFR
17/20/2018 10:20:00 PM14.812.756607.6OVC10155.745.3124VFR
37/21/2018 12:20:00 AM13.712.060376.7BKN10175.463.7140VFR
67/21/2018 3:20:00 AM16.512.564065.5BKN10165.596.886VFR
127/21/2018 9:20:00 AM16.112.364644.0SCT10175.604.692VFR
247/21/2018 9:20:00 PM16.012.268293.9SCT10175.514.4105VFR
367/22/2018 9:20:00 AM16.812.375471.5FEW10185.354.387VFR
487/22/2018 9:20:00 PM16.012.389654.0SCT10185.892.974VFR
727/23/2018 9:20:00 PM16.311.779633.8SCT10176.044.4103VFR

Forecast Historical Performance

Neural Network Forecast average errors (rms) since last model update on 2018-06-10 09:56:53. Naive estimate (ZOH) errors in square brackets for comparison. Standard deviation of observations in round brackets.
[Click here for recent plots of historical performance for all ICAOs]
Hours aheadSamples (in avg)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)QNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True
0.52661.3 [0.7] (3.5)1.2 [0.6] (2.6)1861 [770] (1374)1.9 [2.0] (2.5)3 [0] (7)0.74 [0.83] (0.69)1.8 [1.6] (3.8)97 [87] (121)
14501.5 [1.1] (3.5)1.4 [0.8] (2.6)1857 [889] (1374)2.1 [2.1] (2.5)3 [0] (7)0.59 [0.62] (0.69)2.0 [1.8] (3.8)110 [92] (121)
34172.1 [2.3] (3.5)1.7 [1.4] (2.6)1912 [1120] (1374)2.2 [2.6] (2.5)4 [1] (7)0.69 [0.81] (0.69)3.1 [3.1] (3.8)113 [108] (121)
63942.5 [3.9] (3.5)2.1 [1.9] (2.6)2188 [1390] (1374)2.4 [2.9] (2.5)4 [2] (7)0.75 [0.92] (0.69)3.7 [4.2] (3.8)127 [124] (121)
123433.2 [5.5] (3.5)2.5 [2.8] (2.6)1840 [1617] (1374)2.4 [2.8] (2.5)5 [3] (7)0.93 [0.99] (0.69)3.9 [5.3] (3.8)129 [141] (121)
243302.3 [2.6] (3.5)2.4 [3.1] (2.6)2016 [1547] (1374)2.3 [2.7] (2.5)6 [5] (7)0.58 [0.69] (0.69)3.5 [4.3] (3.8)144 [166] (121)
362863.3 [5.6] (3.5)2.4 [3.3] (2.6)2208 [1686] (1374)2.7 [3.2] (2.5)7 [7] (7)0.79 [1.02] (0.69)4.3 [6.5] (3.8)135 [176] (121)
482872.7 [3.2] (3.5)2.6 [3.3] (2.6)2121 [1581] (1374)2.5 [2.9] (2.5)7 [7] (7)0.90 [0.98] (0.69)3.8 [4.4] (3.8)145 [164] (121)
723282.6 [3.4] (3.5)2.6 [3.3] (2.6)2311 [1588] (1374)2.4 [3.0] (2.5)7 [8] (7)0.82 [0.79] (0.69)3.2 [4.6] (3.8)131 [165] (121)