NeuralMET

DISCLAIMER: This is an EXPERIMENTAL site exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence for aviation weather prediction. The forecasts presented cannot be assumed to be accurate and are used entirely AT YOUR OWN RISK
  

EGAC -- Belfast City United Kingdom (54.6181, -5.8725)

METAR (actual weather observation from US NOAA/NWS, updated every half-hour or so)

Date & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees TrueFlight Category
6/24/2018 11:20:00 AM19.011.0 0.0CLR10256.219.020VFR

NeuralMET Forecasts (via FlyLogical Deep Learning Neural Networks, refreshed every half-hour or so)

Hours aheadDate & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True Flight Category
0.56/24/2018 11:50:00 AM19.111.062610.0CLR10226.218.623VFR
16/24/2018 12:20:00 PM19.511.462070.0CLR10226.199.036VFR
36/24/2018 2:20:00 PM19.811.360540.3CLR10226.208.229VFR
66/24/2018 5:20:00 PM18.311.961550.0CLR10216.154.549VFR
126/24/2018 11:20:00 PM15.511.553270.5CLR10205.935.762VFR
246/25/2018 11:20:00 AM20.011.756421.3FEW10196.207.838VFR
366/25/2018 11:20:00 PM15.211.556470.0CLR10186.085.5100VFR
486/26/2018 11:20:00 AM18.711.949231.7FEW10185.675.664VFR
726/27/2018 11:20:00 AM20.512.156151.3FEW10175.777.2112VFR

Forecast Historical Performance

Neural Network Forecast average errors (rms) since last model update on 2018-06-10 09:56:53. Naive estimate (ZOH) errors in square brackets for comparison. Standard deviation of observations in round brackets.
Hours aheadSamples (in avg)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)QNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True
0.5510.9 [0.8] (2.5)1.2 [0.6] (2.5)1733 [1140] (1400)2.0 [1.8] (2.3)4 [0] (10)1.21 [1.46] (0.85)2.5 [2.1] (4.4)98 [67] (104)
1991.0 [1.2] (2.5)1.4 [0.8] (2.5)1557 [1005] (1400)1.9 [1.8] (2.3)5 [1] (10)0.61 [0.77] (0.85)2.5 [2.2] (4.4)112 [87] (104)
31281.7 [2.4] (2.5)1.9 [1.7] (2.5)1599 [1158] (1400)2.2 [2.4] (2.3)6 [2] (10)0.75 [1.07] (0.85)4.1 [3.6] (4.4)123 [102] (104)
61132.9 [3.6] (2.5)2.6 [2.2] (2.5)1734 [1279] (1400)2.2 [2.4] (2.3)6 [3] (10)0.78 [1.10] (0.85)4.6 [4.3] (4.4)138 [115] (104)
12833.8 [4.3] (2.5)3.0 [3.3] (2.5)1686 [1486] (1400)2.5 [3.1] (2.3)8 [5] (10)1.05 [1.19] (0.85)5.0 [5.1] (4.4)149 [112] (104)
24852.7 [2.2] (2.5)2.7 [3.2] (2.5)1971 [1749] (1400)2.3 [2.8] (2.3)9 [8] (10)0.78 [0.97] (0.85)5.1 [5.7] (4.4)148 [127] (104)
36803.9 [4.0] (2.5)3.3 [3.6] (2.5)2056 [1807] (1400)2.5 [3.1] (2.3)10 [10] (10)0.85 [1.45] (0.85)5.5 [7.5] (4.4)137 [155] (104)
48723.2 [2.8] (2.5)3.4 [3.6] (2.5)2327 [2030] (1400)2.5 [3.6] (2.3)9 [10] (10)1.28 [1.63] (0.85)5.3 [5.8] (4.4)171 [148] (104)
72663.1 [3.4] (2.5)3.3 [3.8] (2.5)2375 [1870] (1400)2.4 [3.5] (2.3)9 [12] (10)1.16 [1.31] (0.85)4.8 [7.8] (4.4)148 [142] (104)