NeuralMET

DISCLAIMER: This is an EXPERIMENTAL site exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence for aviation weather prediction. The forecasts presented cannot be assumed to be accurate and are used entirely AT YOUR OWN RISK
  

EGAC -- Belfast City United Kingdom (54.6181, -5.8725)

METAR (actual weather observation from US NOAA/NWS, updated every half-hour or so)

Date & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees TrueFlight Category
8/13/2018 8:20:00 PM17.013.041005.5BKN10116.211.00VFR

NeuralMET Forecasts (via FlyLogical Deep Learning Neural Networks, refreshed every half-hour or so)

Hours aheadDate & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True Flight Category
0.58/13/2018 8:50:00 PM15.812.569924.6BKN10146.002.551VFR
18/13/2018 9:20:00 PM15.312.769493.6SCT10145.883.178VFR
38/13/2018 11:20:00 PM14.112.373313.3SCT10155.583.676VFR
68/14/2018 2:20:00 AM15.412.672504.7BKN10145.005.554MVFR
128/14/2018 8:20:00 AM16.811.550865.3BKN10164.914.596MVFR
248/14/2018 8:20:00 PM16.911.873633.7SCT10155.204.885VFR
368/15/2018 8:20:00 AM15.611.477340.0CLR10165.144.291VFR
488/15/2018 8:20:00 PM17.711.983775.0BKN10185.523.181VFR
728/16/2018 8:20:00 PM17.211.686904.1SCT10166.055.9137VFR

Forecast Historical Performance

Neural Network Forecast average errors (rms) since last model update on 2018-06-10 09:56:53. Naive estimate (ZOH) errors in square brackets for comparison. Standard deviation of observations in round brackets.
Hours aheadSamples (in avg)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)QNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True
0.53311.2 [0.7] (3.5)1.2 [0.6] (2.6)2182 [779] (1460)1.9 [1.9] (2.6)3 [0] (7)0.71 [0.78] (0.85)1.9 [1.7] (3.7)102 [92] (120)
15151.4 [1.1] (3.5)1.4 [0.8] (2.6)2082 [906] (1460)2.1 [2.1] (2.6)3 [0] (7)0.61 [0.61] (0.85)2.0 [1.9] (3.7)113 [94] (120)
34832.0 [2.3] (3.5)1.7 [1.4] (2.6)2099 [1127] (1460)2.3 [2.5] (2.6)4 [1] (7)0.71 [0.76] (0.85)3.0 [3.0] (3.7)117 [106] (120)
64492.6 [3.9] (3.5)2.2 [1.9] (2.6)2306 [1400] (1460)2.4 [2.8] (2.6)4 [2] (7)0.78 [0.93] (0.85)3.5 [4.1] (3.7)130 [121] (120)
123943.3 [5.4] (3.5)2.6 [2.7] (2.6)1948 [1645] (1460)2.6 [2.8] (2.6)5 [3] (7)0.98 [1.02] (0.85)3.8 [5.3] (3.7)131 [142] (120)
243622.3 [2.6] (3.5)2.4 [3.1] (2.6)2139 [1583] (1460)2.4 [2.7] (2.6)6 [5] (7)0.70 [0.87] (0.85)3.4 [4.2] (3.7)145 [163] (120)
363213.2 [5.5] (3.5)2.5 [3.4] (2.6)2558 [1810] (1460)3.0 [3.2] (2.6)7 [7] (7)0.93 [1.22] (0.85)4.2 [6.3] (3.7)137 [175] (120)
483172.6 [3.1] (3.5)2.6 [3.4] (2.6)2432 [1753] (1460)2.6 [3.0] (2.6)7 [7] (7)0.98 [1.10] (0.85)3.7 [4.5] (3.7)147 [164] (120)
723502.6 [3.4] (3.5)2.8 [3.7] (2.6)2621 [1838] (1460)2.5 [3.3] (2.6)7 [8] (7)1.09 [1.17] (0.85)3.2 [4.7] (3.7)133 [164] (120)

Forecast Charts

Forecast Historical Performance Charts

[Click here for recent plots of historical performance for all ICAOs]