NeuralMET

DISCLAIMER: This is an EXPERIMENTAL site exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence for aviation weather prediction. The forecasts presented cannot be assumed to be accurate and are used entirely AT YOUR OWN RISK
  

EGNS -- Ronaldsway Isle of Man United Kingdom (54.0833, -4.62389)

METAR (actual weather observation from US NOAA/NWS, updated every half-hour or so)

Date & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees TrueFlight Category
8/10/2020 4:50:00 AM17.014.030001.5FEW10186.2111.070VFR

NeuralMET Forecasts (via FlyLogical Deep Learning Neural Networks, refreshed every half-hour or so)

Hours aheadDate & Time (UTC)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)CloudsQNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True Flight Category
0.58/10/2020 5:20:00 AM17.013.828371.7FEW10156.1910.969MVFR
18/10/2020 5:50:00 AM17.014.124752.1FEW10246.1710.373MVFR
38/10/2020 7:50:00 AM17.515.126432.1FEW10236.1511.795MVFR
68/10/2020 10:50:00 AM18.914.124341.9FEW10225.3410.572MVFR
128/10/2020 4:50:00 PM17.415.017024.8BKN10175.6411.8104MVFR
248/11/2020 4:50:00 AM16.415.017152.8SCT10215.548.3128MVFR
368/11/2020 4:50:00 PM16.514.611882.7SCT10205.307.6197MVFR
488/12/2020 4:50:00 AM14.213.87972.6SCT10186.0011.2224IFR
728/13/2020 4:50:00 AM16.014.110134.2SCT10175.5510.6236MVFR

Forecast Historical Performance

Neural Network Forecast average errors (rms) since last model update on 2020-06-17 22:59:01. Naive estimate (ZOH) errors in square brackets for comparison. Standard deviation of observations in round brackets.
Hours aheadSamples (in avg)Temp. (C)Dewpoint (C)Cloud base (ft)Clouds (oktas)QNH (hPa)Visibility (miles)Windspeed (kts)Degrees True
0.50        
11000.6 [0.7] (1.9)0.7 [0.8] (2.2)765 [750] (1573)1.5 [1.7] (2.0)3 [1] (8)0.55 [0.62] (1.08)2.7 [2.8] (6.3)86 [104] (99)
32441.1 [1.3] (1.9)1.3 [1.3] (2.2)1047 [1190] (1573)1.8 [2.1] (2.0)5 [1] (8)1.05 [1.30] (1.08)3.6 [3.9] (6.3)85 [104] (99)
61141.6 [1.9] (1.9)1.5 [1.5] (2.2)1421 [1709] (1573)2.0 [2.6] (2.0)5 [2] (8)0.90 [1.14] (1.08)4.6 [4.9] (6.3)96 [110] (99)
122322.5 [2.6] (1.9)2.3 [2.1] (2.2)1545 [1963] (1573)1.9 [2.5] (2.0)4 [4] (8)1.20 [1.59] (1.08)5.6 [6.6] (6.3)93 [104] (99)
242211.6 [1.6] (1.9)2.4 [2.5] (2.2)1664 [2090] (1573)2.1 [2.8] (2.0)7 [6] (8)1.09 [1.42] (1.08)6.2 [8.1] (6.3)104 [135] (99)
361612.5 [2.7] (1.9)2.6 [3.1] (2.2)1505 [2092] (1573)2.1 [2.9] (2.0)8 [8] (8)1.42 [1.74] (1.08)6.1 [9.2] (6.3)100 [119] (99)
482102.0 [1.8] (1.9)2.7 [3.0] (2.2)1657 [2177] (1573)2.1 [2.9] (2.0)8 [9] (8)1.21 [1.50] (1.08)6.7 [10.2] (6.3)105 [134] (99)
721832.1 [2.0] (1.9)2.8 [3.2] (2.2)1810 [2344] (1573)2.2 [2.6] (2.0)9 [11] (8)1.15 [1.44] (1.08)5.9 [8.6] (6.3)107 [137] (99)

Forecast Charts

Forecast Historical Performance Charts

[Click here for recent plots of historical performance for all ICAOs]